Detail Abstract

Spatio-temporal impacts of climate change over the Cagayan River Basin, Philippines

Abstract

The Philippines is experiencing more frequent heavy precipitation events and severe droughts as a result of climate change and a greater degree of fluctuation in precipitation and temperature. And, the Cagayan River Basin (CRB) in the Philippines is the major basin, covering a total land area of 27,493.49 km², presently facing critical issues of rapid climate variability and frequent occurrences of flood, drought, and become the most significant constraints that somehow prevent further development in CRB. Addressing the effects and occurrence of these disasters is always a significant challenge in the Philippines, particularly in the CRB, due to the increasing population and the effects of climate change. One approach to addressing this challenge is to make better use of climate data and tailor it to better predict the likelihood of occurrences and associated risk for such disasters before they occur. Hence, this study is being conducted to support in addressing these problems by considering the Spatio-temporal assessment of climate change impacts on extreme climate events using the MRI-AGCM3.2S data, and the Mann Kendall\'s test to analyze the relative changes over space and time to investigate the variability and magnitude of change in climate variables and extreme climate indices over historical and future time periods.</br>   The results showed that intra-annual rainfall is increasing in the future, with a higher fluctuation rate in minimum and maximum annual rainfall. A consistent rise in temperature and precipitation is expected to bring prolonged dry spells and wet spells, likely to result in droughts and severe flooding in the Cagayan River Basin. However, the risk of climate change will not be uniform; some sub-basins will be more vulnerable than others. Therefore, spatiotemporal modeling is important for determining changes in space and time across river basins and for the effective implementation of adaptation strategies.